Is the worst over for Indian banks? The past two years saw them ride on treasury trades as deposits soared and credit growth dipped sharply. Gross and net non-performing assets (NPAs) moved south, and the provision coverage ratio (PCR), capital buffers, and profitability indicators are back at pre-pandemic levels. So, what's the plot ahead?
The country's largest lender State Bank of India (SBI) will revamp its banking application (app) YONO and position it as a complete digital bank (DB) under a new rubric 'Only YONO' for enhancing customer experience and ease of use. The bank plans to bring in a consultant to help draw up the project plan, keeping in mind business goals for the next five years. With 54 million monthly active users (MAUs), SBI YONO has seen growth of over 35 per cent in MAUs in 2021.
With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
Zombies a.k.a perpetually loss-making firms in India seem to have dampened the effectiveness of monetary policy at the margin as they use borrowed resources more for their survival than for undertaking new investment, according to a RBI study. The monetary policy does not hinder the creative destruction process by misallocating credit flows to zombies during periods of economic slowdown, showed a study by officers of Reserve Bank of India. It has been published in RBI's bulletin for February 2022. In India, zombie firms are estimated to account for about 10 per cent of total debt of the non-financial corporate sector.
Commercial banks in the country continued with their improving asset quality trend in the October-December 2021 quarter with slippages remaining under control coupled with healthy recoveries and upgradation of asset classification. The 28-listed banks reported improvement in bottom line with net profits rising 64.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 21.5 per cent sequentially. This is mostly on account of a fall in provisions and contingencies.
This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.
India is much better placed today to deal with future waves of the pandemic relative to the first wave, RBI deputy governor Michael Patra said.
Banks and companies in India are taking a cautious approach towards Sri Lanka, which, reeling from a financial crisis, has sought a $1-billion loan from the country to import essential commodities. A senior State Bank of India (SBI) executive said the bank was committed (to Sri Lanka) for the long term. "As far as exposures (are concerned), the bank will be cautious on its dollar exposure to Sri Lankan entities till the situation improves," he said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will stay away from changing key rates - including the reverse repo rate - this fiscal in the backdrop of Omicron. However, it will continue to shape the rate movements through liquidity market operations. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, said whether Omicron surge or not, there is not going to be any hike this year. However, the central bank may continue to shape rates through market operations.
The future of cryptocurrencies in India appears uncertain but that has not deterred young Indians from embracing the so-called 'fourth industrial revolution' world, where interconnectivity and smart automation, much of it relying on blockchain technology, drive human civilisation. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das has repeatedly warned of macroeconomic instability and even "serious consequences" if cryptocurrencies turn mainstream. The country's monetary authority wants a China-like total ban on crypto, not even allowing these currencies to be treated as investments. Though Parliament's website had listed the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill as one seeking a total ban of cryptocurrencies in the country, it was not presented in the Winter Session. India now has the highest number of cryptocurrency investors in the world.
The asset quality of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) deteriorated in April-September 2021 (H1FY22) owing to the second wave of the pandemic. Their gross non-performing assets (NPAs) rose to 6.8 per cent in September 2021 from 6 per cent in March 2021. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) annual Trend and Progress report (FY21) said the sector might have to grapple with higher delinquencies as and when policy measures unwound. The pandemic posed significant challenges to NBFCs during the first wave (2020) also.
The Indian financial system's asset quality improved despite the pandemic, but it could be due to special dispensations by the regulator, and banks would likely see increased stress on their books once the schemes expire. According to the annual trend and progress report of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released on Tuesday, the data available for this financial year so far indicate that banks' bad debts have moderated while provision coverage ratios (PCRs), capital buffers as well as profitability indicators have improved relative to pre-pandemic levels.
RBL Bank's interim chief executive officer (CEO) and managing director (MD) Rajeev Ahuja on Sunday tried to allay concerns around the health of the bank. He said events during the weekend are not linked to RBL's asset quality. The bank said Vishwavir Ahuja, its managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO), had on Saturday proceeded on leave with immediate effect on medical grounds.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor M Rajeshwar Rao on Wednesday defended the central bank's decision of not allowing industrial houses to float banks, and said more deliberations are needed before RBI changes its stance on this issue agreed back in 2001. An internal working group (IWG) of the RBI had recommended allowing industrial groups into banking, but late last month the RBI said it kept on hold the two recommendations of allowing industrial houses and large non-banks to float banks. However, RBI had accepted 21 of the 33 recommendations of the group that submitted its report a year ago.
For the first time in 21 years, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise norms for investment portfolios of commercial banks to reflect changes in global standards on valuation and measurement, and progress in the domestic market. This could pave the way for banks to transition to the new accounting standards (Ind-AS). The outstanding investment portfolio of commercial banks was at Rs 45.84 trillion as of November 19 this year.
The draft amalgamation scheme of Punjab and Maharashtra Co-operative (PMC) Bank with Unity Small Finance Bank (SFB) allowed quick relief to depositors with savings of up to Rs 5 lakh, but a long wait for those who had their nest egg with the scam-tainted bank. If the scheme gets approved, 96 per cent (or 880,000 of 924,000) depositors will get their full money straightaway after PMC is merged with Unity SFB. According to the draft scheme, retail investors may get up to Rs 5 lakh from the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) instantly, and then some more in phases till they can recall their full deposits after 10 years.
Reliance Power (RPower) has defaulted on payment of interest worth Rs 1.17 crore to DBS Bank India and Rs 44 lakh to IDBI Bank. It failed to pay up interest on October 30, 2021. The firm, part of the Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance group, in filing with BSE, said it has term loans and working capital arrangements with three lenders - YES Bank, IDBI Bank and DBS. Its stock closed 1.41 per cent lower at Rs 12.6 per share on the BSE on December 1. About exposure of YES Bank, there is a 'standstill' applicable till December 26, 2021.
The Reserve Bank of India's retail direct scheme is off to a good start but the central bank itself sees it as an additional avenue and not an alternative to the existing one. Still, a reasonable expectation is to have at least 100,000 investors within a month of it being operational, and that could be well under way, if the latest trend is to sustain. The registration in the retail direct platform has crossed 35,000.
Banks are set to sell dud-loans worth Rs 90,000 crore of 22 firms in the first tranche to the National Asset Reconstruction Company (NARCL). It's reason for cheer given that such sales to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) have been poor in recent times. In fiscal 2020, their assets under management (AUM) contracted by 4 per cent; and in fiscal 2021, it fell by another 100 basis points to Rs 1.07 trillion. So, why are we where we are?
'I hope the trend is sustainable and that economic activity accelerates going forward.'
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